US broadcasters including CNN and CBS are projecting that the Democrats won the House of Representatives in yesterday's midterm elections, and CNN and CNBC project that they took the Senate too. Final seat counts are still being confirmed.

For UK homeowners, the question is whether that changes what a mortgage costs. This guide covers how a US election can reach UK mortgage rates, what markets did on Wednesday morning, where fixed rates stand today and what the Bank of England decides at noon tomorrow. Figures are correct at 12:30pm on Wednesday 4 November 2026.

Do the US midterm results change UK mortgage rates?

Not directly. UK lenders do not price mortgages from US election results. They price fixed rates from swap rates, which reflect where financial markets expect interest rates to go over the length of the deal. A US election matters to a UK mortgage only if it moves those expectations, usually through US Treasury yields and UK gilt yields.

The Bank of England is the direct link. The Bank sets Bank Rate, which moves tracker and standard variable rate mortgages directly. It announces its next decision at noon tomorrow, Thursday 5 November.

Our guide to how UK mortgages are priced explains swap rates and lender margins in more detail.

What happened in the US midterms

House. CBS and CNN project that the Democrats have won control of the House. Before the election the House stood at 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats.

Senate. CNN and CNBC project that the Democrats have won the Senate. Before the election it stood at 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents.

Counting continues. Final seat totals have not been confirmed.

What markets did on Wednesday morning

US bond yields fell. The Intermediary reported that global equity markets and the US dollar fell after the results, and that US bond yields declined.

UK gilt yields followed. The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to around 5.2% on Wednesday morning, from about 5.3% at Tuesday's close. Reports link the move to the fall in US Treasury yields, and to expectations that a Democratic House makes further deficit-expanding measures less likely.

One fund manager's view. David Roberts, head of fixed income at Nedgroup Investments, said the scale of the Democratic win appears to have been underestimated by investors. He suggested that for markets the midterms may prove to be of limited consequence.

Lenders reprice on swap rates, not headlines. Moneyfacts said this morning that major lenders could change course over the coming days if expectations for future pricing settle.

Where UK mortgage rates stand today

On Wednesday 4 November 2026, Moneyfacts reported these averages.

Average new mortgage rate: 5.89%. That is up from 5.83% at the start of October and the highest level since November 2023.

Average two-year fixed rate: 5.97%. That is up from 4.83% in January and the highest since December 2023. The average five-year fixed rate has reached 6.00%.

Average two-year tracker: 4.68%. The average standard variable rate is 7.13%.

The cost of the rise. On a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years, the move in the two-year fixed average since January adds around £169 a month, or £2,028 a year. On the same mortgage, the average standard variable rate costs £1,788 a month against £1,606 on the average two-year fix, a difference of £182 a month.

Lenders are moving in both directions. Moneyfacts found that the lowest two-year fixed rates from Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Bank, NatWest and Santander are on average 0.44% higher than at the start of September. At the same time, Nationwide, Halifax and Barclays have cut selected fixed rates by up to 0.15, 0.22 and 0.30 percentage points respectively.

These are averages across every deposit size. They are not the rate you will be offered. You can check live mortgage rates for your own deposit and property value.

The Bank of England decides tomorrow

The expectation. In a Reuters poll of 63 economists, 54 forecast a rise in Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4%. It would be the first rise since 2023. Moneyfacts says the market expects a rise of 0.25 percentage points.

It is not confirmed. Three of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in September to raise the rate to 4%. The decision is announced at noon tomorrow, with the Bank's new forecasts.

Inflation is the backdrop. UK inflation reached 3.5% in September. We set out how the conflict in the Middle East fed through to energy prices and mortgage rates in our post on why the war in the Middle East pushed up mortgage rates.

What it means for your mortgage

If your fixed rate is ending within six months

Most lenders let you secure a new rate up to six months before your current deal ends. We can often secure a rate early and then resubmit the case nearer completion if rates fall. Moneyfacts puts the average revert rate at around 7%, so it matters to have the next deal in place before your current one ends. We compare a product transfer with your existing lender against remortgage rates across the whole market.

If you are on a tracker

Your rate moves with Bank Rate. Moneyfacts calculates that each 0.25 percentage point rise adds about £37 a month on a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years.

If you are on your lender's standard variable rate

The average standard variable rate is 7.13%, against 5.97% on the average two-year fix. A standard variable rate can also rise when Bank Rate does.

If you are already on a fixed rate

Your rate and payment do not change during the fixed period, whatever the Bank of England decides.

If you are buying or moving home

The rate you are offered depends on your deposit, whether you are buying or remortgaging, the product fee and your circumstances. See our pages for first-time buyers and home movers.

Why advice matters while rates are moving

The average is not your rate. The figure that matters is the rate available for your deposit, your income and your property, from the lenders who will accept your application.

Lenders change prices quickly. Some are cutting selected deals while the average rises. A deal that is available this morning can be withdrawn or repriced before you apply.

The lowest rate is not always the lowest cost. We compare the total cost over the fixed period, including fees and any early repayment charge on your current deal.

For more on timing, read should I fix my mortgage now or wait for rates to come down?

Your questions answered

Will the US midterm results change my mortgage rate?

Not directly. Fixed rates are priced from swap rates, and the midterms matter only if they move them. On Wednesday morning gilt yields fell alongside US yields, while the Moneyfacts averages above are at a three-year high.

Will the Bank of England raise rates on Thursday?

A rise to 4% is widely expected but not confirmed. In a Reuters poll, 54 of 63 economists forecast one. The announcement is at noon on Thursday 5 November.

Should I wait for the Bank of England decision before fixing?

Nobody can say which way fixed rates will move after the decision. Lenders have been repricing ahead of it, and the Bank's forecasts and guidance will feed into swap rates. If your current deal ends within six months, most lenders allow a new rate to be secured now.

Does a Bank Rate rise change my fixed rate mortgage?

No, not until the fixed period ends. It applies to trackers and standard variable rate mortgages directly, and it feeds into the rates on new fixed deals.

Talk to an Adviser About Your Mortgage

We compare the whole market and tell you what is available for your deposit or equity, your income and your property. Check live mortgage rates or contact us to speak to one of our advisers about a purchase or a remortgage.